The level of long-term, on-going economic activity at Fitzsimons will increase dramatically over time as new facilities are completed. In the University Campus area, existing research institutes, education programs and health care delivery services will relocate from their current locations. Some of those functions will expand in the process, while others will represent entirely new undertakings. Development of the FRA Development area, which includes the Bioscience Park, Fitzsimons Commons and the I-225 locations, will support many primary businesses, including new startups, spin-offs, new branch operations and relocating firms. Many of those establishments will represent new firms to both the city and the state. Over time, the total level of economic activity, the numbers of jobs and the total personal income located at Fitzsimons and supported elsewhere in the regional and state economies by the on-site activity will grow to join the ranks of the major centers of economic activity in the state.

A sustained economic impact
 Unlike the economic impacts of the initial construction, the impacts associated with the on-going public and private sector enterprises at Fitzsimons will represent sustained, long-term economic benefits to the local, regional and state economies. Estimates of the future impacts are based on the anticipated physical building space at Fitzsimons and the corresponding level of employment and economic activity associated with that space. The input metrics for future employment and economic activity are in turn based on information provided by the major institutional partners, a series of industry employment, space and productivity norms developed over time, economic relationships imbedded in IMPLAN, and economic and fiscal data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and State of Colorado.

The estimated economic impacts are presented on a “snapshot” basis for two levels of development. The first “snapshot” corresponds to the 7.0 million square fee of space anticipated to be in place at the end of 2010. The second “snapshot”, which does not correspond to a specific date/year, is associated with the full-development of 13.6 million square feet at some point in time after 2010. For simplicity, the “snapshots” assume full occupancy and utilization of the various research, education, health care and office spaces.


Employment, output and income
Over $3.9 billion ($2002) of new capital investment is envisioned at Fitzsimons in the future. As described in Section III, that investment will support nearly 65,400 jobs in construction and related industries, spawn more than $7.2 billion in total business output in the state and generate $2.76 billion in personal income for business and property owners and households in the state. However, more importantly, that investment represents the development of economic capacity to support on-going bioscience research, commercialization and production, education of physicians, nurses, dentists and other health care professionals, and the delivery of health care. Over time, the economic production associated with that development will ultimately rise a point where it equals on an annual basis levels that are approximately comparable to the cumulative yields associated with the entire construction program.

Achievement of the 2010 physical development targets results total projected employment of more than 34,800 jobs in the state. Of the total, an estimated 15,728 jobs (45 percent of the total) will be located on-site at Fitzsimons. Furthermore, every job at Fitzsimons, on average supports another 1.22 jobs elsewhere in the state economy (another 19,111 jobs total) through supply linkages or spawned by the consumer expenditures of individuals employed by one of the entities located at Fitzsimons or those suppliers. The combined annual output of the public and private sector entities at Fitzsimons and the businesses affected by the various economic linkages will exceed $3.1 billion annually. Of that total annual output, nearly $1.65 billion represents the net value added through the production of goods and services in Colorado. The significance of that sum is readily established by the fact that it is the equivalent to 1.06 percent of the total gross state product of Colorado in 1999 (the most recent year reported.)



Extending the analysis to the full development scenario yields even more impressive results with a total of 66,844 jobs supported: 32,216 on-site and 34,688 elsewhere in the local, regional and statewide economies. Those jobs will generate more than $2.45 billion in personal income per year for Colorado households, business owners and property owners. Total annual output at full development will exceed $6.34 billion annually with total annual value added of $3.4 billion. The latter is the equivalent of 2.2 percent of Colorado’s 1999 gross state product. Moreover, the projected economic impacts detailed above are exclusive of any allowances for future benefits associated with commercialization and production which occur off-site but which stem from research conducted on-site at Fitzsimons. As is described in Section V, the likelihood of future commercialization has been documented, but it is beyond the IMPLAN model’s capabilities to forecast the timing, extent and economic impacts associated with such commercialization.

As previously described, the relocation of the Veterans Affairs Medical Center to Fitzsimons is under consideration. Were this to occur, the affect would be that some of the incremental increases in employment, output and income impacts expected to occur post-2010 would in fact occur by 2010.

Fitzsimons-related economic impacts will be geographically dispersed and extend across all sectors of the region’s economy. One manner in which this impact manifests itself is in the number of jobs, labor income, and industrial output supported. A breakdown of impacts across major industrial sectors is presented in Table 8 on the following table. As shown, more than two-thirds of the total jobs impact occurs in the Services sector which includes health care, medical research, nonprofit associations and various business, management, legal, accounting and other professional services. The combined wholesale and retail trade sector will experience the next largest impact, driven by the increase in consumer expenditures.



Tax revenues
Barring changes in tax structures and rates, public sector tax revenues will, over time, reflect changes in the underlying economic activity on which they are based. Thus, the significant levels of output and personal income associated with Fitzsimons redevelopment can be expected to yield substantial streams of tax revenue to the state and local governmental bodies. The future tax revenues will be in addition to those associated with the construction activities, will reflect the differences in the mix of public and private sector development in the pre-2010 and post-2010 time periods, and will grow over time as the level of development increases.

By 2010, an estimated $46.7 million will accrue annually to the state treasury in the forms of sales, income and motor vehicle taxes due to the combined economic activity at Fitzsimons and that supported elsewhere in the state. Over time, that amount would grow to $93.8 million annually at full development. Income tax receipts, derived primarily from personal income taxes on earnings, will account for more than half of the total at each point in time: $23.4 million and $49.1 million, respectively. However, at full development, sales tax revenues collected by the state that are attributable to the Fitzsimons will also top more than $40 million annually.



The on-going economic activity associated with the Fitzsimons project will also generate substantial sums in local government tax receipts. Local governments benefit most directly from increases in sales and property taxes associated with new development. Based on the average revenue coefficients, the IMPLAN model estimates approximately $21.7 million in added local sales tax collections by 2010, rising to $40.5 million per year at full development.

Future sales tax receipts would be augmented by additional property taxes from on-site private sector development and new private sector development supported off-site. IMPLAN’s estimated receipts of local property taxes exceed the projected local sales tax revenue. Unfortunately, IMPLAN’s projections do not appropriately account for the tax-exempt status of the public sector investment and the differences in Colorado assessment practices for residential and non-residential property. Thus, they misstate the potential property tax revenue. Consequently, those projections are ignored in favor of estimates tied to on-site taxable development only, the estimated development costs and the current tax rates for the city of Aurora, Adams County and Aurora Public Schools District 28J. Using these data yields estimated revenues of $7.8 million in property taxes in 2010 and $29.5 million at full development.

Initially, the portion of the local sales and use taxes generated directly from the on-site development and economic activity at Fitzsimons will accrue to a tax increment financing (TIF) district rather than the affected governmental bodies. The TIF was established jointly by the city of Aurora, Adams and Arapahoe counties, and Aurora Public School District 28J to help fund infrastructure improvements and promote redevelopment of commercial areas located near Fitzsimons. Under the TIF, these governmental bodies agreed to forego the property and sales tax increments from redevelopment for up to 25 years. After the TIF’s obligations are retired and the district dissolved, those revenues will begin accruing to the affected jurisdictions.The revenue sums that will flow to each entity will depend on the value of development, retail sales productivity, property tax assessment practices and tax rates applicable at the time. All of those factors are subject to change from their current status; however, an indication of future revenue is derived predicated on the current data and achieving full development. As shown, following the dissolution of the TIF, combined total annual local tax revenues of more than $32.5 million would accrue to Aurora, Adams County and Aurora Public Schools District 28J at full development. The total is comprised of nearly $29.5 million in property taxes and nearly $3.1 million in sales, lodging and occupational privileges taxes. More than half of the total property tax receipts will accrue to the school district, while all of the latter group of revenues will accrue to the city.

Arapahoe County will also realize increases in tax revenues. However, those revenues are not reported here as they will be tied to off-site development south of Colfax Avenue, including along the south frontage of Colfax, rather than from any on-site development at Fitzsimons.